US stocks ended in record-high territory Monday.
The Dow notched its first closing record since July 15, finishing up 115 points, or 0.4%, to reach 27,462, while S&P 500 closed up 0.4% at 3,078 and the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.6% to close at 8,433.
“The market rally is now broadening out, meaning it’s not just confined to tech and we’ll likely go a little bit higher,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, according to CNBC. “It’s based on a lot of enthusiasm that continues to build around trade.”
The Dow could surpass a record set in mid-July. It already set a new one for the highest intraday level. The magic number it needs to close above is 27,359.16 points.
Both the S&P and the Nasdaq closed at all-time highs on Friday. The S&P set three records last week alone.
Although there is little new on the trade front on Monday, last week’s hopes for a US-China trade deal were buoyed again after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism over a deal in a Bloomberg interview. Ross also said that US companies selling parts to China’s Huawei would receive licenses to do so.
The two largest economies in the world agreed a “phase one” deal in October, and were meant to sign it at the APEC meeting in Chile. However, Chile is no longer hosting. President Donald Trump said in a tweet last week Thursday that Beijing and Washington are working on finding a new place for the signing.
Longer term, the news might not be as good.
Over the next decade, low growth, low inflation and low yields could push returns for the classic US portfolio — 60% stocks and 40% bonds — down toward their lowest point in a century. That’s right: a century.
Strategists at Morgan Stanley see US stocks and US Treasuries returning 4.9% and 2.1% each year during that timeframe, according to research published this weekend. The traditional US portfolio would therefore return just 2.8% annually — half the average performance over the past 20 years.
“Investors will need to accept much higher volatility to eke out small incremental units of return,” strategists including Serena Tang, executive director of cross-asset strategy, told clients. Investors will likely opt for fewer government bonds, favoring high-quality credit instead.