Adjustment to Higher-for-Longer Rate Bets Boost U.S. Treasury Yields

The U.S. government debt market needs to adjust to fewer interest rate cuts this year, Spartan’s Peter Cardillo says in a note as the 10-year Treasury yield reclaims the 4.15% level it lost in late January as the perception of an imminent cut increased at the time. Higher-than-expected employment and hawkish fedspeak lowered the prospect since Friday. Cardillo sees the 10-year yield potentially climbing to 4.20%. The benchmark is now at 4.155%. In the CME’s FedWatch tool, odds that in May the Fed will keep rates at today’s level rise to 33% from 12% a week ago. A first cut in May remains the highest bet.