GDP Contraction Expected to Support Smaller Fed Move

Reuters Interview 7/28/22
July 28, 2022
Class CNBC Interview 7/28/22
July 28, 2022

GDP Contraction Expected to Support Smaller Fed Move

Weaker-than-expected GDP reading in the 2Q supports bets on a softer, 50-basis point hike by the Fed in September. The CME FedWatch tool has the odds of a 50bp at 80%, up from 72% before the GDP data, which showed a 0.9% contraction. “From a textbook viewpoint the economy is in a recession,” Spartan’s Peter Cardillo says in a note, adding it remains a controversial topic. He highlights the PCE price index slowing to 4.4% from the 1Q’s 5.2%. “The good news is the core PCE fell substantially from last quarter which may slow the pace of the Fed’s tightening going forward.”